I shouldn't have taken a nap today because its after midnight and I am wide awake. So, I decided to take a look at the USCIS processing delays and focus my attention on CSC and VSC to see what I can figure out. These are my thoughts:

California is up to date with 'all other forms' (not sure exactly what is included in that category, but I assume the I-129's are in there). CSC has also made made some serious progress in the I-175 category and at their current pace, should be up to date by next week. The N-400's are about 2 weeks behind, but over the last 3 weeks, they have gained about 90 days on their backlog, which only leaves the I-130 to catch up on. The I-130's haven't budged since 10/19 when they only gained 18 days and haven't moved since.

Vermont is current with their 'all other forms' but is lagging behind with the N-400's. The last update, they decreased their backlog on N-400's by a little over a month. Their I-130's are stagnant at end of July and haven't moved at all that I can tell (only going back to mid Sept). I suspect Vermont is working on the N-400s and 'all others' exclusively and should be caught up with the N-400s within 2 weeks. Not sure, but VSC doesn't list I-175s, so perhaps they don't process them at that location.

So, my projection: Both Cali and Vermont will spend this week (Dec 3 - 7, 2007) working on their N-400s while keeping their 'all others' current. Cali will also work on bringing the I-175's current this week. I am not sure if Cali will assist Vermont with their I-130 backlog or not, but there is a disparity of 30 days between Cali and Vermont with Cali ahead in the game. My thought is if Cali doesn't assist Vermont, both service centers should be hitting the I-130s hard within 2 weeks and the NOA-1's will be hitting the mail boxes fast and furious by the week of Dec 17. Of course, that is right around the holidays, so perhaps right after Jan 1 is when we will see real progress.

(*sigh* patience is a virtue and why can't you edit post titles??)

My concerns is now that we know all the I-130s received after Aug 30 (at CSC) and July 29 (at VSC) have been shipped to Chicago for initial data input and that they will be shipped back to either CSC or VSC for processing, that:

1) the transferring of the files themselves back and forth between Chicago and the Service Centers will create additional delays just due to mail time;

2) government agencies are famous for losing stuff in the mail;

3) this backlog, once cleared, will become a backlog at NVC as well and then the real fun begins;

4) those applicants affected may get their NOA1 from Chicago (USCIS hasn't advised either way), and this is being used as a means just to placate those applicants for a short time, but the overall processing times has to go beyond the 6 months that USCIS advised that processing takes.

My revised prediction for my own file from beginning (which I am counting from the date I mailed my application to CSC) to the end is now at 1.5 years - 2 years (including Consulate interview which is 4-6 months currently).

I know in the past when they have transferred files to another agency, most of the people have been pleased as it usually means it picks up the pace, otherwise it just seems to sit. MAil in the USA is much faster than what it is in Canada.